Authors: Ana González-Martínez (WUR); Roel Jongeneel (WUR); Marcel van Asseldonk (WUR)
Editor: Miranda García (AEIDL)
In 2024, the Tools4CAP project produced methodological guidelines designed to guide technical decisions in the design, implementation and evaluation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). These guidelines support managing authorities and governance bodies in navigating the key steps involved in using modelling tools.
The report begins by highlighting how these tools can support the strategic planning of the CAP Strategic Plans (CSPs), and proceeds with concrete applications of modelling tools, along with a step-by-step description of their implementation.
The modelling tools selected for this purpose include Joint models (AGMEMOD-FarmDyn-ecoscheme simulator), CAPRI, GLOBIOM and experimental economics. These tools are applied to assess various aspects of (CSPs) in different Member States: the Netherlands, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and France, respectively.
Integrating modelling tools into the CSP policy-making process
In CSPs, modelling tools can play a crucial role, particularly in conducting ex-ante assessments of the potential impacts of alternative policy measures (scenario analysis). Moreover, they contribute to mid-term and ex-post evaluations by helping to isolate policy impacts from other influencing variables.
In Tools4CAP, sustainability has been defined in a multidimensional manner, i.e. from an economic, environmental and social angles. Hence, making agriculture more sustainable is a challenging task that requires considering trade-offs and interlinkages between all the elements that comprise the food sector when designing interventions. In this context, quantitative assessments based on modelling tools provide forward-looking insights in a coherent, structured, and transparent manner.
Looking at the CSP policy-making process, modelling tools can contribute to the design phase by identifying priorities and needs and quantifying them. During the implementation phase, they can provide further insights and feedback, ensuring transparency and supporting adaptive management. In addition, they can also contribute to the monitoring phase by assessing expected or actual progress based on selected CAP indicators.
Considerations for using modelling tools
When selecting a modelling tool, end users should consider the following criteria:
- Outputs: the list of indicators the tool generates.
- Key function(s) of the tool: what the tool does and how it works.
- Inputs: the policy data, assumptions and contextual information required to run the tool.
Once the most ‘suitable’ tool has been selected for analysis, it should be populated with the necessary input data to simulate a specific scenario. Then, the model’s output should be generated and discussed with key stakeholders.
The selected applications cover a wide range of CAP-related aspects. For instance, in the Netherlands, a ‘joint’ model has been developed to estimate the impacts of alternative hectare payments options within the eco-scheme system, focusing on expected uptake and budget requirements. In the case of Hungary, CAPRI is used to assess the impact of ammonia-related farming technologies implemented alongside other CAP measures in the livestock sector. Moreover, GLOBIOM helps identify synergies and trade-offs between EU targets, such as climate resilience and environmental sustainability, and the competitiveness and viability of Czech agriculture under evolving climate change conditions. Finally, in the Occitanie region (France), experimental economics are used to assess the potential impacts of Agri-Environment-Climate Measures ‘transition of practices’ (AECMt).
Inspiring future applications
This document presents some examples of applications in which different modelling tools are used to assess different aspects of the CSPs. These applications demonstrate the potential of using modelling tools for supporting evidence-based policy-making. In April 2026, these guidelines will be updated to incorporate lessons learnt from the four case studies in which these tools are currently being applied.
More information: D2.3 Methodological guidelines