Author: Blanca Casares Guillén (AEIDL)
Editor: Raquel Pastor Carretero (AEIDL)
On 20 January 2026, the online event “Learning from the Past: Lessons for the New Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)”, hosted by the Florence School of Regulation (EUI), gathered top experts to discuss how to strengthen policy effectiveness. The event served as a collaborative space for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners to reflect on how evidence-based evaluation can enhance the effectiveness and impact of the CAP, both in the current 2023–2027 period and for the post-2027 horizon.
Addressing the complexity of strategic planning
The shift toward a performance-oriented model requires robust analytical frameworks to support Member States. Bérénice Dupeux (Ecorys), coordinator of the Tools4CAP project, addressed the technical challenges currently facing CAP Strategic Plans, such as objective complexity and the need for stronger intervention logic.
In this context, Tools4CAP was highlighted as a collaborative initiative to bridge these gaps by strengthening the analytical capacity of national authorities. The project advocates for a balanced mix of methodologies:
- Quantitative modelling: Supporting the implementation of farm-level and partial-equilibrium models to facilitate continuous impact assessment at the national level.
- Qualitative methodologies: Assisting in the structuring of reasoning and the clarification of causal pathways to better understand policy trade-offs.
- Monitoring frameworks: Emphasising the long-term value of systematic data tracking for policy and environmental results.
Evaluation as a tool for policy learning
Blanca Casares Guillén (AEIDL), discussed the role of evaluation in clarifying intervention logic and anticipating farm-level responses. Drawing on research from the BEATLES project, she noted that variations in intervention design across Member States can lead to different incentive structures, even when overarching objectives are aligned. The discussion suggested that findings from current evaluations should directly inform the development of future National and Regional Partnership Plans (NRPPs) for the 2028–2034 period, particularly in the definition of the Performance Framework.
She concluded by highlighting the critical role of stakeholder engagement and participatory, evidence-based evaluation in enhancing both policy effectiveness and legitimacy. In this regard, she called for a more systemic and multidimensional evaluation culture within CAP governance, one that integrates behavioural insights, methodological capacity-building, fairness considerations, and long-term sustainability objectives as core elements of decision-making.
Institutional perspectives on evidence and modelling
The discussion was further enriched by institutional views from DG AGRI and the Joint Research Centre (JRC).
Sophie Hélaine (DG AGRI) opened the discussions by setting the policy and evaluation context of the current CAP within the EU policymaking cycle. She explained how, under the Better Regulation agenda, the Commission is strengthening a culture of evidence-based and results-oriented policymaking, in a context that is increasingly complex and fast-changing.
Giampiero Genovese (JRC) followed by providing a research perspective on agro-economic and environmental modelling in support of CAP evaluation. He briefly presented the role of integrated modelling platforms, such as iMAP, in assessing policy coherence and cumulative impacts across economic, environmental, and climate dimensions.
Key technical takeaways
The exchange identified several priorities for the future of CAP, such as:
- Policy coherence, where evaluators play a fundamental role clarifying intervention logic, and assessing alignment and trade-offs among multiple interventions within CAP Strategic Plans, particularly in a context of increased flexibility for Member States.
- Dynamic adjustments to plan amendments should be seen as an essential learning and adjustment mechanism, incorporating implemenation experience, stakeholder feedback and performance monitoring results, thereby improving policy effectiveness while maintaining alignment with CAP objectives and EU-level guidance.
- Finally, questions on the distributional effects of direct payments underscored persistent concerns about fairness, targeting, and the differentiated impacts across farm types, regions, and beneficiaries. Taken together, these questions reinforced the need for evaluation frameworks that are not only technically robust but also policy-relevant, adaptive, and capable of informing more equitable and coherent decision-making under the CAP.