Author: Raquel Pastor Carretero (AEIDL)
The High-level Dialogue on the Common Agricultural Policy and Rural Development, held on 3 March 2026, brought together EU institutions, regional representatives and policy experts to assess the budgetary outlook for the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), review the performance of the current programming period and reflect on the evolving role of regions in the governance of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). One of the key contributions was the intervention of Professor Alan Matthews, member of the Tools4CAP Advisory Board, who presented his analysis of the regulatory and financial architecture of the MFF and the CAP.
Implications of the new NRPP allocation key for CAP budget in the next MFF
In his presentation How big will the CAP budget be in the next MFF? Matthews examined the implications of the Commission’s proposal to consolidate the former shared management funds into the new National and Regional Partnership Plans (NRPP). While the analysis shows that the overall volume of the NRPP remains stable in nominal terms, the introduction of a new allocation key produces a significant redistribution across Member States, with increases for some and decreases for others as a technical consequence of the new formula. But this redistribution could alter the baseline for CAP programming.
For certain Member States, the new allocation provides space to maintain or expand their CAP budgets, while others will need to operate within more limited financial margins, requiring careful prioritisation in their CAP programming choices.
Professor Matthews highlighted that the scope for CAP spending in each Member State is shaped not only by the size of its overall NRPP allocation but also by regulatory constraints: the minimum ringfenced share for CAP income support, the minimum ringfenced share for less developed regions, the minimum ringfenced share for home affairs, and the size of the flexibility amount. He noted that this flexibility amount cannot be programmed at the start of the period, as it must first be reserved for natural disaster compensation and can only be released at the midterm review.
Building on this, he also underlined additional elements that determine the effective programming margin available to Member States. A particularly important one is the concession introduced by the Commission in January in the context of the EU–Mercosur Association Agreement, which could alter the starting point for CAP budgeting. By allowing Member States to draw on the flexibility amount from the outset—provided it is channelled into CAP interventions or rural measures—the minimum level of CAP funding effectively rises in several countries, influencing how much room they have to adjust their strategic choices.
Overall, Professor Matthews’ assessment is that the EU CAP budget is likely to remain broadly similar—in current prices—to that of the present programming period, although with a significantly different distribution across Member States. However, this outcome depends critically on the Council and Parliament maintaining the MFF at its proposed level.
Relevance for Tools4CAP: strengthening analytical and strategic capacity
As Member States prepare for the next programming period, Tools4CAP aims to support national and regional authorities by delivering results that strengthen their analytical and strategic capacities, while also creating opportunities to learn from and exchange experiences. One such opportunity will be the lessons drawn from the twelve case studies implemented within the project, which will be presented during the Tools4CAP Academy in 2026.
In this context, a key objective will be to reinforce the ability to design evidence-based CAP interventions through advanced analytical tools, modelling approaches and decision support systems. Matthews’ conclusions are linked to this need, as adapting to the new budgetary environment will depend more on the technical capacity to optimise allocations and design interventions that remain coherent with the CAP’s long-term objectives, than on the overall volume of available funds.
Additional contributions and thematic discussions
The dialogue also featured contributions related to the evaluation of the current programming period and the lessons learned, addressing the economic, environmental and social dimensions of the new CAP. Several more specific discussions focused on the Common Market Organisation and agricultural products, the EU School Scheme, and strategies for generational renewal in agriculture.
The final part of the dialogue was dedicated to the future of rural development, with interventions from the European Parliament, ELARD and the European Council of Young Farmers, who provided complementary perspectives on the challenges and opportunities facing rural areas in the coming years.
Further information can be found on the event webpage.