Authors: Bérénice Dupeux (Ecorys) and Roel Jongeneel (WUR)
Editor: Miranda García (AEIDL)
On 3rd and 4th April 2025, the Tools4CAP project participated in the Good Practice Workshop on “Exploring the potential of simulation models for assessing the CAP”, held in Bari, Italy. Organised by the EU CAP Network, with support from the European Evaluation Helpdesk for the CAP, the event brought together Managing Authorities, Paying Agencies, evaluators, and CAP networks from across Europe. This ninth Good Practice workshop aimed to showcase the possibilities offered by using simulation models for evaluating the CAP, as well as the conditions for implementing them.
Simulation models are quantitative tools used to anticipate the effects of policy interventions across economic, environmental, and social dimensions. They allow stakeholders to forecast impacts, close data gaps, and inform better policy formulation. In addition to ex-ante assessment, simulation models are valuable for ex-post evaluation in two key ways. First, they can generate a “baseline” or “counterfactual” scenario, simulating what would have occurred in the absence of policy intervention. This provides a reference point for assessing the actual impact of the intervention. Second, they help account for the complexity of agri-food systems, which often involve feedback loops and data limitations. In such cases, simulation models can illuminate interactions between policy measures and system dynamics, offering proxy indicators to assess potential impacts.
From Inventory to implementation
As part of the session on “Sharing experiences from Horizon”, Bérénice Dupeux, project coordinator of Tools4CAP (Ecorys), shared key lessons learned from the project’s ongoing work. She presented the Tools4CAP online inventory—a comprehensive mapping of methods and tools used by Member States in their CAP Strategic Plans (CSPs) or developed by the scientific community and ready to be used. In her presentation, she specifically focused on the tools suitable for ex-post evaluation at the national level.
Bérénice emphasised that quantitative models are rarely used in isolation. Instead, they are often complemented by participatory methods and new data sources, enhancing the robustness and practical value of CAP evaluations. “To capture the complexity of the agricultural system, you need multiple tools. Farm simulation models are only some of them,” she noted.
A practical case from the Netherlands
In addition, Roel Jongeneel, Senior Scientist at Wageningen University & Research, presented a practical example of how simulation models were applied during the design phase of the CAP Strategic Plan in the Netherlands. He focused on the redesign of the eco-scheme points system, where various design options and hectare payment schemes were assessed for their expected uptake and budgetary implications.
To model these outcomes, three simulation models were integrated: FARMDYN, AGMEMOD, and the eco-scheme simulation tool. This approach allowed for the exploration of alternative specifications, such as the eligibility of fallow land as a crop and options to promote low-input grassland management.
Mapping needs across Member States
During the event, participants also explored the needs of Member States in applying simulation models. Group discussions focused on both the usefulness and the challenges of using these models to support the evaluation of the CAP.
The session concluded with a summary of key messages by Sophie Helaine from European Commission’s DG AGRI, Dimitris Psaltopoulos from the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Norbert Potori from the AKI Institute of Agricultural Economics, and Matthias Hartmann from the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture. They reflected on the opportunities and limitations of simulation models in the context of CAP evaluation.
Further information about the event can be found on the official website.